Why Giant Airships Could Be a Trillion Dollar Industry
WELCOME MARGINAL REVOLUTION READERS! And thank you for your thoughtful comments. I've written responses to them at the bottom of this post. Scroll down. One thing I plan to do a lot of on this blog is speculative quantification. I want to post a lot of best guess numbers that are subject to so much uncertainty that it verges on irresponsible to post them at all. Not biased, I hope, except inasmuch as the evidence itself is biased, as often happens; but very uncertain. Experts and aspiring experts tends to avoid saying numbers that are wildly uncertain, for good reasons. While one can surround a number with a bodyguard of disclaimers and caveats, if the number gets noticed at all, such evidential throat clearing is the first thing to vanish in references and quotations. Methodology is boring. And so, as your number circulates, it will sound more and more like a factual claim rather than a guess, and there's not much you can do to prevent it, other than to refuse to publish sp